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For the film of the same name, see Swing State (film). Swing State is an upcoming feature documentary (expected 2008) written produced and directed by John Intrater, Jason Zone Fisher, And
The swing states during the past two decades.
The swing states during the past two decades.

A swing state (also, battleground state or purple state) in United States presidential politics is a state in which no candidate has overwhelming support, meaning that any of the major candidates have a reasonable chance of winning the state's electoral college votes. The United States of America —commonly referred to as the The President of the United States is the Head of state and Head of government of the United States and is the highest political official in United States by Politics of the United States takes place in the framework of a presidential, Federal republic where the President of the United States (the Head of A US state is any one of the fifty subnational entities of the United States of America that share Sovereignty with the federal government The Electoral College consists of 538 popularly elected representatives who formally select the President and Vice President of the United States. Such states are targets of both major political parties in presidential elections, since winning these states is the best opportunity for a party to gain electoral votes. This list of Political parties in the United States contains past and present political parties in the United States. Elections for President and Vice President of the United States are Non-swing states are sometimes called safe states, because one candidate has strong enough support that they can safely assume they will win the state's votes.

Contents

Origin of swing states

Heavy television advertising by candidates in a swing state can bring out supporters for the candidates more than in other states. These yard signs in a residential district of Grosse Pointe, Michigan during the 2004 Presidential election show the difference in opinions between two neighbors.
Heavy television advertising by candidates in a swing state can bring out supporters for the candidates more than in other states. These yard signs in a residential district of Grosse Pointe, Michigan during the 2004 Presidential election show the difference in opinions between two neighbors. Grosse Pointe is a wealthy suburban city bordering Detroit in Wayne County in the U The United States presidential election of 2004 was held on Tuesday November 2, 2004, to elect the President of the United States.
These maps show the amount of attention given in the 2004 election by Bush and Kerry campaigns during the final five weeks of the election. At left, each waving hand represents a visit from a presidential or vice-presidential candidate during the final five weeks. At right, each dollar sign represents one million dollars spent on TV advertising by the campaigns during the same time period.
These maps show the amount of attention given in the 2004 election by Bush and Kerry campaigns during the final five weeks of the election. George Walker Bush ( born July 6 1946 is the forty-third and current President of the United States. } John Forbes Kerry (born December 11 1943 is an American Politician who is currently serving his fourth term as the junior United States Senator At left, each waving hand represents a visit from a presidential or vice-presidential candidate during the final five weeks. At right, each dollar sign represents one million dollars spent on TV advertising by the campaigns during the same time period.

In US Presidential elections, the U.S. Electoral College system allows each state to decide the method by which it awards electors. The Electoral College consists of 538 popularly elected representatives who formally select the President and Vice President of the United States. Since legislatures want to increase the voting power of the majority of their states, all states except Maine and Nebraska (explained below) use a winner-take-all system, where the candidate who wins the most popular votes in a state wins all of that state's electoral votes. The State of Maine ( is a state in the New England region of the northeastern United States of America, bordering the Atlantic Ocean Nebraska ( is a state located on the Great Plains of the Midwestern United States and Winner-take-all connotates also the principle of the Plurality voting system. Under this system no advantage is gained by winning more than a plurality of the vote, nor is there any advantage gained by winning additional votes in a state that will still be lost. In other words, Presidential candidates have no incentive to spend time or resources in states they are likely to win or lose by a sizeable margin.

Since a national campaign is interested in electoral votes, rather than the national popular vote, it tends to ignore states that it believes it will win easily; since it will win these without significant campaigning, any effort put into them is essentially wasted. A similar logic dictates that the campaign avoid putting any effort into states that it knows it will lose.

For instance, a Republican candidate (the more conservative of the two major parties) can easily expect to win many of the Southern states like Mississippi, Alabama and South Carolina, which historically have a very conservative culture and a more recent history of voting for Republican candidates. Conservatism in the United States includes a variety of political ideologies including Fiscal conservatism, Supply-side economics, Social conservatism The Deep South is a descriptive category of cultural and geographic subregions in the American South. Mississippi ( is a state located in the Deep South of the United States Alabama (formally the State of Alabama;) is a State located in the southern region of the United States of America. South Carolina ( is a state in the southern region ( Deep South) of the United States of America. Similarly, the same candidate can expect to lose Illinois, Vermont, Hawaii, Massachusetts, New Jersey, and New York, traditionally liberal states, no matter how much campaigning is done in those states. The State of Illinois ( roughly ill-i-NOY is a state of the United States of America, the 21st to be admitted to the Union. Vermont ( is a state in the New England region of the northeastern United States of America. The State of Hawaii ( or həˈwaɪʔiː Hawaiian: Mokuāina o Hawaii) is a state in the United States located on an Archipelago in the The Commonwealth of Massachusetts ( is a state located in the New England region of the northeastern United States. New Jersey ( is a state in the Mid-Atlantic and Northeastern regions of the United States. New York ( is a state in the Mid-Atlantic and Northeastern regions of the United States and is the nation's third most populous Liberalism in the United States is a broad political and philosophical mindset favoring individual Liberty, and opposing restrictions on liberty whether they come from The only states which the campaign would target to spend time, money, and energy in are those that could be won by either candidate. These are the swing states.

In Maine and Nebraska, two electoral votes go to the person who wins a plurality in the state, and a candidate gets one additional electoral vote for each Congressional District in which they receive a plurality. A congressional district is an electoral Constituency that elects a single member of a Congress. Both of these states have relatively few electoral votes (for the 2004 election, Maine had 4 and Nebraska had 5; the minimum is 3) and are usually not considered swing states (Maine is generally considered a Democratic-leaning state while Nebraska is typically thought to be a Republican state). Despite their different rules, neither has ever had a split electoral vote.

In the 2004 elections Colorado voted on Amendment 36, an initiative which would have allocated the state's electoral votes in proportion to the popular vote in the state. An election is a Decision-making process by which a population chooses an individual to hold formal office The State of Colorado ( or chiefly by nonresidents) is a state located in the Rocky Mountain region of the United States of America. In the November 2004 United States election one of the issues up for a vote in the state of Colorado was known as Amendment 36. The initiative would have taken effect immediately, applying to the selection of electors in the same election. However, the initiative failed and Colorado remains under the winner-take-all system that is present in 48 states.

Determining swing states

The Oregon Daily Emerald cited University of Oregon political science professor Joel Bloom as mentioning three factors in identifying a swing state: "examining statewide opinion polls, political party registration numbers and the results of previous elections. The Oregon Daily Emerald is an independent daily Newspaper published at the University of Oregon in Eugene Oregon, United States. The University of Oregon (UO is a public, Coeducational Research university in Eugene Oregon, United States. Political science is a branch of Social sciences that deals with the theory and practice of Politics and the description and analysis of Political systems " The article also cites Leighton Woodhouse, co-director of "Driving Votes," as claiming that there is a general consensus among most groups regarding about 75 percent of the states typically thought of as swing states. [1]

Historical swing states

The swing states of Connecticut, Indiana, New Jersey and New York were key to the outcome of the 1888 election. Connecticut ( is a state located in the New England region of the northeastern United States of America. The State of Indiana ( was the 19th US state admitted into the union New Jersey ( is a state in the Mid-Atlantic and Northeastern regions of the United States. New York ( is a state in the Mid-Atlantic and Northeastern regions of the United States and is the nation's third most populous The United States Presidential Election of 1888 was held on November 6 1888 [2] The swing states of Illinois[3] and Texas were key to the outcome of the 1960 election; however, today Illinois (D), Connecticut (D), New York (D), Indiana (R) and Texas (R) are not considered swing states, while New Jersey is more of a swing state than the previously mentioned states, with a nearly even split of the congressional delegation, possibly to account for the urban-suburban divide. The State of Illinois ( roughly ill-i-NOY is a state of the United States of America, the 21st to be admitted to the Union. Texas ( is a state geographically located in the South Central United States and is also known as the Lone Star State. The United States presidential election of 1960 marked the end of Dwight D The State of Illinois ( roughly ill-i-NOY is a state of the United States of America, the 21st to be admitted to the Union. Connecticut ( is a state located in the New England region of the northeastern United States of America. New York ( is a state in the Mid-Atlantic and Northeastern regions of the United States and is the nation's third most populous The State of Indiana ( was the 19th US state admitted into the union Texas ( is a state geographically located in the South Central United States and is also known as the Lone Star State. New Jersey ( is a state in the Mid-Atlantic and Northeastern regions of the United States. Ohio has often been considered a swing state [4] [5] [6], particularly during the 2004 election, having voted with the winner in every election since 1948 except for 1960. Ohio ( is a Midwestern state of the United States. As part of the Great Lakes region, Ohio has long been a cultural and geographical crossroads The United States presidential election of 2004 was held on Tuesday November 2, 2004, to elect the President of the United States. Year 1948 ( MCMXLVIII) was a Leap year starting on Thursday (link will display the 1948 calendar of the Gregorian calendar. Year 1960 ( MCMLX) was a Leap year starting on Friday (link will display full calendar of the Gregorian calendar. It has often been said that "as Ohio goes, so goes the nation. " [7] [8] Missouri has voted for the winner of every presidential election since 1904, save for its support of Adlai Stevenson in 1956; see Missouri bellwether. Missouri ( or) is a state in the Midwestern region of the United States bordered by Iowa, Illinois, Kentucky, Tennessee Year 1904 ( MCMIV) was a Leap year starting on Friday (link will display calendar of the Gregorian calendar (or a Leap year starting on This is about the mid-20th-century politician and diplomat for other American politicians so named see Adlai Stevenson (disambiguation. Please DO NOT flip the colors --> The United States presidential election of 1956 saw a popular Dwight D The Missouri bellwether is a political phenomenon that notes that the state of Missouri has voted for the winner in every U Florida was key to the outcome of the 2000 election. The United States presidential election of 2000 was a contest between Democratic candidate Al Gore, then Vice President, and Republican [9] California has the largest number of electoral votes (55) in the nation. However, because its votes have gone to the Democratic candidate since 1992, it is not considered a swing state, and candidates do not see any reason to campaign.

Swing States as of 2008

The following states are grouped by geographic regions: (in parenthesis are the total number of electoral votes allocated to that state, followed by the winning party in 2004)

Northeast

South

Midwest

West/Pacific

Summary

Overall, the candidates spend a significant amount of time in the Midwest, as this region has 75 electoral votes. Most of the Midwestern states have been inclined to vote for the Democrats, albeit by a small margins, making them just volatile enough to switch parties.

As for the "Big Three", Pennsylvania, Florida and Ohio, all of the candidates invest much of their time there partially in order to offset any surprises election day, but also because the trio provides a total of 68 electoral votes, making them a strategic necessity in their own right. No candidate since John F. Kennedy has won the White House without winning at least two of these three states.

Historically, no Republican candidate has won the White House without winning Ohio; indeed, the winner of Ohio has been the winner of every general election since 1960. See also Executive Office of the President of the United States The White House, formerly known as the Executive Mansion, is the Official residence And with the exception of 1956, no candidate since 1904 ever has won without also winning the state of Missouri, making it the longest running bellwether state. The Missouri bellwether is a political phenomenon that notes that the state of Missouri has voted for the winner in every U

Other terms for swing state

See also

References

  1. ^ "Portrait of a swing State", Meghan Cunhiff, Oregon Daily Emerald, October 4, 2004. See also Electoral geography of the United States Red States and Blue States refer to those states of the United States of America A marginal seat is a Constituency held with a particularly small majority in a legislative Election conducted under a single-winner rather than List of 1960 swing states List of 1968 swing states List of 1976 swing states List of 1980 swing states The Missouri bellwether is a political phenomenon that notes that the state of Missouri has voted for the winner in every U The Oregon Daily Emerald is an independent daily Newspaper published at the University of Oregon in Eugene Oregon, United States. Events 610 - Heraclius arrives by ship from Africa at Constantinople, overthrows Byzantine Emperor Phocas "MMIV" redirects here For the Modest Mouse album see " Baron von Bullshit Rides Again "
  2. ^ "1888 Overview" p. 4, HarpWeek. Harper's Weekly ( A Journal of Civilization) was an American political Magazine based in New York City.
  3. ^ "Daley Remembered as Last of the Big-City Bosses", David Rosenbaum, New York Times, April 21, 2005. David E Rosenbaum ( March 1, 1942 &ndash January 8, 2006) was an American Journalist. Events 753 BC - Romulus and Remus found Rome ( traditional date) Year 2005 ( MMV) was a Common year starting on Saturday (link displays full calendar of the Gregorian calendar.
  4. ^ Trolling the Campuses for Swing-State Votes, Julie Salamon, "The New York Times", October 2, 2004
  5. ^ Game Theory for Swingers, Jordan Ellenberg, "Slate.com", October 25, 2004
  6. ^ Swing-state status lifts Ohio delegates' prestige Carl Weiser, "Cincinnati Enquirer, July 25, 2004"
  7. ^ As Ohio Goes, So Goes the Nation...Again, Kate Snow, ABC World News, November 6, 2007
  8. ^ As Ohio Goes, So Goes The Nation. Sometimes., "The Washington Post" March 6, 2008
  9. ^ "How we got here: A timeline of the Florida recount", CNN, December 13, 2000. Events 1187 - Siege of Jerusalem: Saladin captures Jerusalem after 88 years of Crusader rule "MMIV" redirects here For the Modest Mouse album see " Baron von Bullshit Rides Again " Slate is an English-language online current affairs and culture Magazine created in 1996 by former New Republic editor Michael Events 1147 - The Portuguese, under Afonso I, and Crusaders from England and Flanders conquer Lisbon after a "MMIV" redirects here For the Modest Mouse album see " Baron von Bullshit Rides Again " The Cincinnati Enquirer a daily morning Newspaper, is the highest-circulation print publication in Greater Cincinnati ( Ohio) and Northern Events 285 - Diocletian appoints Maximian as Caesar, co-ruler "MMIV" redirects here For the Modest Mouse album see " Baron von Bullshit Rides Again " World News with Charles Gibson (previously known as World News Tonight, often called ABC World News Tonight, also often abbreviated Events 355 - Roman Emperor Constantius II promotes his cousin Julian to the rank of Caesar, entrusting him with Year 2007 ( MMVII) was a Common year starting on Monday of the Gregorian calendar in the 21st century. The Washington Post is the largest and most circulated Newspaper in Washington D Events 1079 - Omar Khayyám completes the Iranian calendar. 1454 - Thirteen Years' War: Delegates of 2008 ( MMVIII) is the current year in accordance with the Gregorian calendar, a Leap year that started on Tuesday of the Common Cable News Network, usually referred to by its Initialism CNN, is a major English language Television network founded in 1980 by Ted Turner Events 1294 - Saint Celestine V abdicates the papacy after only five months Celestine hoped to return to his previous life 2000 ( MM) was a Leap year that started on Saturday of the Common Era, in accordance with the Gregorian calendar.
  10. ^ "Pitt could see more attempts by legislators to micro-manage", University of Pittsburgh University Times, October 10, 2007. The University of Pittsburgh, commonly referred to as Pitt, is a non-sectarian coeducational independent state-related, "public" research University Events 680 - Battle of Karbala: Shia Imam Husayn bin Ali, the grandson of the Prophet Muhammad, is decapitated Year 2007 ( MMVII) was a Common year starting on Monday of the Gregorian calendar in the 21st century.
  11. ^ "Rendell Administration Supports Giving Pennsylvanians a Voice in Presidential Primary", Commonwealth of Pennsylvania Department of State, March 13, 2007. The Commonwealth of Pennsylvania ( often colloquially referred to as PA (its abbreviation by natives and Northeasterners is a state located in the Northeastern Events 1138 - Cardinal Gregorio Conti is elected Antipope as Victor IV, succeeding Anacletus II. Year 2007 ( MMVII) was a Common year starting on Monday of the Gregorian calendar in the 21st century.
  12. ^ Bush, Kerry in Reach of Electoral Win, Washington Post, 10/30/2004.
  13. ^ Intense 2008 election forecast for Ohio

External links

Cable News Network, usually referred to by its Initialism CNN, is a major English language Television network founded in 1980 by Ted Turner Slate is an English-language online current affairs and culture Magazine created in 1996 by former New Republic editor Michael The George Washington University ( GW or GWU) is a private coeducational university located in Washington D A blog (a contraction of the term " Web log " is a Web site, usually maintained by an individual with regular entries of commentary descriptions of

Dictionary

swing state

-noun

  1. (US) (idiomatic) A state which may vote Democratic or Republican, in a given election or generally; a purple state.
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