Spoiler effect

The "spoiler effect" is a term to describe the effect a minor party candidate with little chance of winning can have on a close election, in which their candidacy results in the election being won by a candidate dissimilar to them rather than a candidate similar to them by taking votes away from the viable candidate with similar views. An election is a Decision-making process by which a population chooses an individual to hold formal office The minor candidate is often referred to as a "spoiler. " It is a real life demonstration of the kingmaker scenario. A kingmaker scenario, in a game of three or more players is an Endgame situation where a player unable to win (see lame duck) has the capacity to determine which

The "spoiler effect" is one of the components contributing to the effect known as Duverger's law, which states that the first-past-the-post election system creates and preserves a two-party system. In Political science, Duverger's law is a principle which asserts that a plurality rule election system tends to favor a Two-party system. The plurality voting system is a Single-winner voting system often used to elect executive officers or to elect members of a legislative assembly which is based on single-member A two-party system is a form of Party system where two major Political parties dominate voting in nearly all Elections at every A voting system known as preferential voting, can lessen this effect. This article is about voting systems that use ranked ballots For alternative meanings see Preferential voting (disambiguation. In a preferential voting system, a voter can vote for a minor party candidate as their first choice, and in addition, they can record a preference between the remaining candidates, whether they are in a "major party" or not. For example, voters for a very liberal candidate might select a somewhat liberal candidate as their second choice, thus minimising the chances that their vote will result in the election of a conservative candidate. Approval voting can also reduce the impact of the "spoiler effect". Approval voting is a single-winner voting system used for Elections Each voter may vote for (approve of as many of the candidates as they wish

In sports, the 'spoiler effect' refers to a similar phenomenon, in which a team has failed to win enough games to make the playoffs, but affects the playoffs anyway by beating a more successful team before the end of the season.

1 Vote splitting
2 Mathematical definitions
3 The spoiler effect in American presidential elections
4 References
5 See also

Vote splitting

Main article: Vote splitting

"Vote splitting" is a phenomenon related to the "spoiler effect. Vote splitting is an electoral effect in which the distribution of votes among multiple similar candidates reduces the chance of winning for any of the similar candidates and " Vote splitting is the distribution of votes among otherwise viable similar candidates in a situation that decreases the likelihood of winning for any of the similar candidates. This effect was observed in 1987, when Roh Tae-woo won the South Korean presidential election with just under 36% of the popular vote after his two main rivals split the vote. Roh Tae-woo (born December 4, 1932 in Daegu, South Korea) is a former ROK Army general and politician South Korea, officially the Republic of Korea and often referred to as Korea ( Korean: 대한민국 tɛː

As an example of vote splitting, if 30 percent of voters prefer candidate A, another 30 percent prefer a similar candidate B, and the remaining 40 percent prefer a dissimilar candidate C, then plurality voting identifies candidate C as the winner, even though a majority of voters (60 percent) prefer either candidate A or candidate B. The plurality voting system is a Single-winner voting system often used to elect executive officers or to elect members of a legislative assembly which is based on single-member

Voting methods that are vulnerable to strategic nomination, especially methods that fail independence of clones, are vulnerable to vote splitting. Strategic nomination is the manipulation of an Election through its candidate set (compare this to Tactical voting, where the manipulation comes from the voters In voting systems theory the Independence of Clones Criterion is a criterion that measures an election method's robustness to Strategic nomination. Vote splitting also can occur in situations that do not involve strategic nomination, such as talent contests (such as American Idol) where earlier rounds of voting determine the current contestants. American Idol, with the full title American Idol The Search for a Superstar for the first season only is an American reality-competition In the United States vote splitting commonly occurs in primary elections. A primary election ( nominating primary) also referred to simply as a primary, is an election in which voters in a Jurisdiction select candidates ^[1] One could say that the function of a primary election is to get all vote splitting (within a party) out of the way, so that it does not effect the secondary election. However, since primary elections only occur within each party, vote splitting can still occur between parties in the secondary election.

Plurality voting is especially vulnerable to vote splitting. The plurality voting system is a Single-winner voting system often used to elect executive officers or to elect members of a legislative assembly which is based on single-member Runoff voting methods are less vulnerable, and pairwise-counting Condorcet methods minimize vote splitting effects. A Condorcet method is any single-winner election method that meets the Condorcet criterion, that is which always selects the Condorcet winner, the candidate ^[1]

In addition to applying to single-winner voting systems (such as used in the United Kingdom, the United States and Canada), a split vote can occur in proportional representation methods that use election thresholds, such as in Germany and Turkey. The United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland, commonly known as the United Kingdom, the UK or Britain,is a Sovereign state located The United States of America —commonly referred to as the Country to "Dominion of Canada" or "Canadian Federation" or anything else please read the Talk Page Party-list proportional representation systems are a family of Voting systems used in multiple-winner Elections (e In Party-list proportional representation systems an election threshold is a clause that stipulates that a party must receive a minimum percentage of votes either Germany, officially the Federal Republic of Germany ( ˈbʊndəsʁepuˌbliːk ˈdɔʏtʃlant is a Country in Central Europe. Turkey (Türkiye known officially as the Republic of Turkey ( is a Eurasian Country that stretches In these cases, "fringe" parties that do not meet the threshold can take away votes from larger parties with similar ideologies.

Mathematical definitions

Possible mathematical definitions for the spoiler effect include failure of independence of irrelevant alternatives (IIA) and vote splitting. Independence of irrelevant alternatives (IIA is a term for an Axiom of Decision theory and various social sciences

Arrow's impossibility theorem shows that rank-voting systems are unable to satisfy the independence of irrelevant alternatives criterion without exhibiting other undesirable properties as a consequence. In Social choice theory, Arrow’s impossibility theorem, or Arrow’s paradox, demonstrates that no voting system can convert the ranked preferences of individuals Independence of irrelevant alternatives (IIA is a term for an Axiom of Decision theory and various social sciences However, different voting systems are affected to a greater or lesser extent by IIA failure. A voting system allows voters to choose between options often in an Election where candidates are selected for public office. For example, instant runoff voting is considered to have less frequent IIA failure than First Past the Post. Instant-runoff voting ( IRV) is a Voting system used for single-winner elections in which voters have one vote and rank Candidates in order of The plurality voting system is a Single-winner voting system often used to elect executive officers or to elect members of a legislative assembly which is based on single-member The local independence of irrelevant alternatives criterion is similar to IIA, but which can be passed by some ranked ballot methods. Local independence of irrelevant alternatives (LIIA also known as Independence of Smith-dominated alternatives (ISDA is a Voting system criterion defined

The spoiler effect in American presidential elections

One often cited example of the "spoiler effect" at work was the 2000 U.S. Presidential election. The United States presidential election of 2000 was a contest between Democratic candidate Al Gore, then Vice President, and Republican In that election, George W. Bush and Al Gore had a very close election in many states, with neither candidate winning a majority of the votes. George Walker Bush ( born July 6 1946 is the forty-third and current President of the United States. Albert Arnold Gore Jr (born March 31 1948 is an American environmental Activist, author Businessperson, former Politician, and former In the state of Florida, the final certified vote totals show that Bush won just 537 more votes than Gore, thus winning the state. Since the Florida votes were among the last to be reported, and because the results were so close, and there was a vote recount, some say that the Florida result "decided the election". Some Gore supporters believed that many of the 97,421 votes that went to Ralph Nader in that state would likely have been votes for Gore, had Nader not been running in the election. Ralph Nader (born February 27 1934 is an American Attorney, Author, Lecturer, political activist, and independent candidate for President Some Gore supporters contend that Nader's candidacy "spoiled" the election for Gore by taking away enough votes from Gore in Florida and many other states (in particular, New Hampshire being the allegation most statistically supportable) to allow Bush to win. New Hampshire ( is a state in the New England region of the northeastern United States of America. Their argument is bolstered by a poll of Nader voters, asking them for whom they would have voted had Nader not run, which said 45 percent of them would have voted for Mr. Gore, 27 percent would have voted for Mr. Bush, and the rest would not have voted^[2]. Nader supporters say he was running, in part, to protest the positions of Bush and Gore. Ralph Nader, defending himself claimed "Defeat is a powerful motivator that democracy allows and encourages. Had Nader not been on the ballot, pro-Bush or anti-Gore voters might have voted for Bush". Nader himself and many of his supporters argue that most Nader voters would have chosen another minor party candidate, or abstained from voting, had he not been on the ballot. Abstention is a term in Election procedure for when a participant in a vote either does not go to vote (on election day or in Parliamentary procedure, is present Some observers began to refer to this as the 'Nader effect' after the 2000 election. Other observers note that this phenomenon existed long before Nader.

These are third-party candidates who have been accused of denying victory to a major nominee.

The spoiler effect also sometimes occurs in congressional elections and elections for state offices. Charles Cotesworth (CC Pinckney ( February 25, 1746 August 16, 1825) was an early American Statesman and a constitutional delegate In the United States Presidential election of 1800, sometimes referred to as the “Revolution of 1800” Vice President Thomas Jefferson defeated President John Adams James Birney may refer to James G Birney (1792-1857 American presidential candidate for the Liberty Party James M The United States presidential election of 1844 saw Democrat James Knox Polk defeat Whig Henry Clay in a close contest that turned on foreign Martin Van Buren (December 5 1782 July 24 1862 was the eighth President of the United States from 1837 to 1841 The United States presidential election of 1848 was an open race Theodore Roosevelt (ˈroʊzəvɛlt October 27 1858 January 6 1919 also known as T The United States presidential election of 1912 was fought among three major candidates two of whom had previously won election to the office George Corley Wallace Jr (August 25 1919 September 13 1998 was a Democratic Governor of Alabama for four terms (1963-1967 1971-1979 and 1983-1987 and ran for Please DO NOT flip the colors -->The United States presidential election of 1968 was a wrenching national experience and included the assassination of Democratic candidate Henry Ross Perot (born June 27 1930 is an American businessman from Texas, who is best known for seeking the office of President of the United States in The United States presidential elections of 1992 featured a battle between incumbent President, Republican George H Ralph Nader (born February 27 1934 is an American Attorney, Author, Lecturer, political activist, and independent candidate for President The United States presidential election of 2000 was a contest between Democratic candidate Al Gore, then Vice President, and Republican

References

^ ^a ^b Ending The Hidden Unfairness In U.S. Elections explains why plurality and runoff voting methods are vulnerable to vote splitting.
^ THE 2004 CAMPAIGN: THE INDEPENDENT; Relax, Nader Advises Alarmed Democrats, but the 2000 Math Counsels Otherwise - New York Times

Dictionary

-noun

Voting theory. A term used to describe the effect a candidate on a close election to a corresponding political office (especially the office of the President of the United States), in which their candidacy results in the election being won by a candidate dissimilar to them, rather than a candidate similar to them.

© 2009 citizendia.org; parts available under the terms of GNU Free Documentation License, from http://en.wikipedia.org
network: | |

Contents