Cover of the 19 February 1921 edition of the Literary Digest. Events 197 - Roman Emperor Septimius Severus defeats usurper Clodius Albinus in the Battle of Lugdunum Year 1921 ( MCMXXI) was a Common year starting on Saturday (link will display full 1921 calendar of the Gregorian calendar

The Literary Digest was an influential general-interest magazine in the early 20th century United States, published by Funk and Wagnalls. Magazines, periodicals or serials are Publications generally published on a regular schedule containing a variety of articles, generally The twentieth century of the Common Era began on The United States of America —commonly referred to as the Funk & Wagnalls is a Publisher based in New York City known for its reference works including an Encyclopedia, content from which became a part of The first issue was in 1890 and in 1938 it merged into Time Magazine. Time (trademarked in capitals as TIME) is a weekly American Newsmagazine, similar to Newsweek and

The Digest is almost certainly best-remembered today for the circumstances surrounding its demise. It conducted a poll regarding the likely outcome of the 1936 presidential election. The United States presidential election of 1936 took place as the Great Depression entered its eighth year The poll showed that the Republican governor of Kansas, Alf Landon, would likely be the overwhelming winner. The Governor of Kansas holds the "supreme executive power" of the State of Kansas as provided by the first article of the Kansas Constitution. Alfred "Alf" Mossman Landon ( September 9, 1887 – October 12, 1987) was an American Republican Politician This seemed possible to some as the Republicans had fared well in Maine, where the congressional and gubernatorial elections were then held in September - as opposed to the rest of the nation, where these elections were held in November along with the presidential election, like today. The State of Maine ( is a state in the New England region of the northeastern United States of America, bordering the Atlantic Ocean This seemed especially likely in light of the conventional wisdom, "As Maine goes, so goes the nation", a truism coined because Maine was regarded as a "bellwether" state which usually supported the winning candidate's party. " As Maine goes so goes the nation " is a phrase that at one time was in wide currency in United States politics. A bellwether is any entity in a given arena that serves to create or influence trends or to presage future happenings

In November, Landon carried only Vermont and Maine; U.S. President Franklin Delano Roosevelt carried the then other forty-six states; Landon's electoral vote total of eight is a tie for the record low for a major-party nominee since the current U. Vermont ( is a state in the New England region of the northeastern United States of America. The President of the United States is the Head of state and Head of government of the United States and is the highest political official in United States by S. two-party system began in the 1850s. A two-party system is a form of Party system where two major Political parties dominate voting in nearly all Elections at every Events and Trends Industry Production of Steel revolutionized by invention of the Bessemer process Benjamin Silliman The magazine was completely discredited because of the poll and was soon discontinued.

In retrospect, the polling techniques employed by the magazine were to blame. Although it had polled 10 million individuals (only about 2 million of these individuals responded, an astronomical sum for any survey), it had surveyed firstly its own readers, a group with disposable incomes well above the national average of the time (shown in part by their ability still to afford a magazine subscription during the depths of the Great Depression). The magazine also used two other readily-available lists: that of registered automobile owners and that of telephone users. Basic principle A traditional landline telephone system also known as "plain old telephone service" (POTS, commonly handles both signaling and audio information While such lists might come close to providing a statistically-accurate cross-section of Americans currently, this assumption was manifestly untrue in the 1930s. The 1930s were described as an abrupt shift to more radical and conservative lifestyles as countries were struggling to find a solution to the Great Depression. Both groups had income well above the national average of the day, and resulted in lists of voters far more likely to support Republicans than a truly typical voter of the time.

George Gallup's American Institute of Public Opinion achieved national recognition by correctly predicting the result of the election, and for correctly predicting the results of the Literary Digest poll, using a smaller sample. George Horace Gallup ( November 18, 1901 – July 26, 1984) was an American pioneer of survey sampling techniques and inventor of the Gallup

This debacle led to a considerable refinement of public opinion polling techniques and was largely regarded as spurring the beginning of the era of modern scientific public opinion research.

See also

• Opinion poll#History of opinion polls

External links

• Landon in a Landslide: The Poll That Changed Polling