The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) is a scientific body tasked to evaluate the risk of climate change caused by human activity. For non-business risks see Risk or the disambiguation page Risk analysis. Climate change is any long-term significant change in the “average weather” that a given region experiences The panel was established in 1988 by the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) and the United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP), two organizations of the United Nations. The UN Environment Programme (or UNEP) coordinates United Nations environmental activities assisting developing countries in implementing environmentally sound policies The United Nations ( UN) is an International organization whose stated aims are to facilitate cooperation in International law, International security

The IPCC shared the 2007 Nobel Peace Prize with former Vice President of the United States Al Gore. The Nobel Peace Prize ( Swedish, Danish and Nobels fredspris is one of five Nobel Prizes Bequeathed by the Swedish industrialist and inventor The Vice President of the United States is the first person in the presidential line of succession, becoming the new President of the United States upon the death Albert Arnold Gore Jr (born March 31 1948 is an American environmental Activist, author Businessperson, former Politician, and former ^[1]

The IPCC does not carry out research, nor does it monitor climate or related phenomena. A main activity of the IPCC is publishing special reports on topics relevant to the implementation of the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC),^[2] an international treaty that acknowledges the possibility of harmful climate change; implementation of the UNFCCC led eventually to the Kyoto Protocol. Annex I and Annex II Countries and Developing Countries Signatories to the UNFCCC are split into three groups Annex I countries (industrialized countries The Kyoto Protocol is a protocol to the international Framework Convention on Climate Change with the objective of reducing Greenhouse gases in an effort The IPCC bases its assessment mainly on peer reviewed and published scientific literature. ^[3] The IPCC is only open to member states of the WMO and UNEP. IPCC reports are widely cited in almost any debate related to climate change. ^[4][5] National and international responses to climate change generally regard the UN climate panel as authoritative. ^[6]

The summary reports (i. e. Summary for Policymakers), which draw the most media attention, include review by participating governments in addition to scientific review. ^[7]

Aims

The principles of the IPCC operation^[2] are assigned by the relevant WMO Executive Council and UNEP Governing Council resolutions and decisions as well as on actions in support of the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change process. The UN Environment Programme (or UNEP) coordinates United Nations environmental activities assisting developing countries in implementing environmentally sound policies Annex I and Annex II Countries and Developing Countries Signatories to the UNFCCC are split into three groups Annex I countries (industrialized countries

The role of the IPCC is to assess on a comprehensive, objective, open and transparent basis the scientific, technical and socio-economic information relevant to understanding the scientific basis of risk of human-induced climate change, its potential impacts and options for adaptation and mitigation. IPCC reports should be neutral with respect to policy, although they may need to deal objectively with scientific, technical and socio-economic factors relevant to the application of particular policies. Review is an essential part of the IPCC process. Since the IPCC is an intergovernmental body, review of IPCC documents should involve both peer review by experts and review by governments. ^[2]

The stated aims of the IPCC are to assess scientific information relevant to:

1. human-induced climate change,
2. the impacts of human-induced climate change,
3. options for adaptation and mitigation.

The history of the IPCC is described in a brochurePDF (618 KiB). A kibibyte (a contraction of ki lo bi nary byte) is a unit of Information or Computer storage, established by the International The IPCC has been chaired by Rajendra Pachauri since 2002. Rajendra Kumar Pachauri (born August 20, 1940, Nainital, India) is an Economist and environmental scientist who has

IPCC Reports

The IPCC published its first assessment report in 1990, a supplementary report in 1992, a second assessment report (SAR) in 1995, and a third assessment report (TAR) in 2001. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change first assessment report was completed in 1990 and served as the basis of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change supplementary report of 1992 was published to contribute to the debate on the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate The Second Assessment Report (SAR of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change was published in 1995 The IPCC Third Assessment Report, Climate Change 2001, is an assessment of available scientific and socio-economic information on climate change by an intergovermental panel Climate Change 2007, the Fourth Assessment Report (AR4 of the United Nations Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change ( IPCC) is the fourth Annex I and Annex II Countries and Developing Countries Signatories to the UNFCCC are split into three groups Annex I countries (industrialized countries The UN Environment Programme (or UNEP) coordinates United Nations environmental activities assisting developing countries in implementing environmentally sound policies The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change first assessment report was completed in 1990 and served as the basis of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate The Second Assessment Report (SAR of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change was published in 1995 The IPCC Third Assessment Report, Climate Change 2001, is an assessment of available scientific and socio-economic information on climate change by an intergovermental panel A fourth assessment report (AR4) was released in 2007. Climate Change 2007, the Fourth Assessment Report (AR4 of the United Nations Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change ( IPCC) is the fourth Each assessment report is in three volumes, corresponding to Working Groups I, II and III. Unqualified, "the IPCC report" is often used to mean the Working Group I report, which covers the basic science of climate change.

IPCC Fourth Assessment Report: Climate Change 2007

Main article: IPCC Fourth Assessment Report

The Fourth Assessment Report (AR4) was completed in early 2007^[11]. Like previous assessment reports, it consists of four reports, three of them from its working groups.

Working Group I dealt with the "Physical Science Basis of Climate Change. " The Working Group I Summary for Policymakers (SPM) was published on 2 February 2007^[12] and revised on 5 February 2007^[13]. Events 962 - Translatio imperii: Pope John XII crowns Otto I Holy Roman Emperor, the first Holy Roman Emperor Year 2007 ( MMVII) was a Common year starting on Monday of the Gregorian calendar in the 21st century. Events 1576 - Henry of Navarre converts to Roman Catholicism in order to ensure his right to the throne of France. Year 2007 ( MMVII) was a Common year starting on Monday of the Gregorian calendar in the 21st century. There was also a 2 February 2007 press release^[14]. Events 962 - Translatio imperii: Pope John XII crowns Otto I Holy Roman Emperor, the first Holy Roman Emperor Year 2007 ( MMVII) was a Common year starting on Monday of the Gregorian calendar in the 21st century. The full WGI report^[15] was published in March. The key conclusions of the SPM were that^[16]:

• Warming of the climate system is unequivocal.
• Most of the observed increase in globally averaged temperatures since the mid-20th century is very likely due to the observed increase in anthropogenic (human) greenhouse gas concentrations.
• Anthropogenic warming and sea level rise would continue for centuries due to the timescales associated with climate processes and feedbacks, even if greenhouse gas concentrations were to be stabilized, although the likely amount of temperature and sea level rise varies greatly depending on the fossil intensity of human activity during the next century (pages 13 and 18)^[13].
• The probability that this is caused by natural climatic processes alone is less than 5%.
• World temperatures could rise by between 1. 1 and 6. 4 °C (2. 0 and 11. 5 °F) during the 21st century (table 3) and that:
  • Sea levels will probably rise by 18 to 59 cm (7. 08 to 23. 22 in) [table 3].
  • There is a confidence level >90% that there will be more frequent warm spells, heat waves and heavy rainfall. A heat wave is a prolonged period of excessively hot Weather, which may be accompanied by high Humidity.
  • There is a confidence level >66% that there will be an increase in droughts, tropical cyclones and extreme high tides. A drought is an extended period of months or years when a region notes a deficiency in its water supply In Meteorology, a cyclone refers to an area of closed circular fluid motion rotating in the same direction as the Earth. Characteristics A tide is a repeated cycle of sea level changes in the following stages Over several hours the water rises or advances up a beach in the flood
• Both past and future anthropogenic carbon dioxide emissions will continue to contribute to warming and sea level rise for more than a millennium.
• Global atmospheric concentrations of carbon dioxide, methane, and nitrous oxide have increased markedly as a result of human activities since 1750 and now far exceed pre-industrial values over the past 650,000 years

In IPCC statements "most" means greater than 50%, "likely" means at least a 66% likelihood, and "very likely" means at least a 90% likelihood. Carbon dioxide ( Chemical formula:) is a Chemical compound composed of two Oxygen Atoms covalently bonded to a single Methane is a Chemical compound with the molecular formula. It is the simplest Alkane, and the principal component of Natural gas. Nitrous oxide, commonly known as " laughing gas," is a Chemical compound with the Chemical formula N 2 O.

An outline of chapters in the WGI report (as of November 3, 2005)^[17] and a list of the report's authors (as of March 10, 2005)^[18] were made available before publication of the SPM.

The Summary for Policymakers for the Working Group II [1] report was released on April 6, 2007^[19]. The Summary for Policymakers for the Working Group III report ^[20] was released on May 4, 2007. The AR4 Synthesis Report (SYR) was released on November 17, 2007.

IPCC Third Assessment Report: Climate Change 2001

Main article: IPCC Third Assessment Report

The Third Assessment Report (TAR) consists of four reports, three of them from its working groups:

• Working Group I: The Scientific Basis^[21]
• Working Group II: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability^[22]
• Working Group III: Mitigation^[23]
• Synthesis Report^[24]

The "headlines" from the Summary for Policymakers^[25] in The Scientific Basis were:

1. An increasing body of observations gives a collective picture of a warming world and other changes in the climate system (The global average surface temperature has increased over the 20th century by about 0. The IPCC Third Assessment Report, Climate Change 2001, is an assessment of available scientific and socio-economic information on climate change by an intergovermental panel For extreme records instead of records as a set of data see Temperature extremes The temperature record shows the fluctuations of the 6 °C; Temperatures have risen during the past four decades in the lowest 8 kilometers of the atmosphere; Snow cover and ice extent have decreased)
2. Emissions of greenhouse gases and aerosols due to human activities continue to alter the atmosphere in ways that are expected to affect the climate (Anthropogenic aerosols are short-lived and mostly produce negative radiative forcing; Natural factors have made small contributions to radiative forcing over the past century)
3. Confidence in the ability of models to project future climate has increased (Complex physically based climate models are required to provide detailed estimates of feedback and of regional features. In Climate science radiative forcing is (loosely defined as the change in net Irradiance at the Tropopause. Such models cannot yet simulate all aspects of climate (e. g. , they still cannot account fully for the observed trend in the surface-troposphere temperature difference since 1979) and there are particular uncertainties associated with clouds and their interaction with radiation and aerosols. Nevertheless, confidence in the ability of these models to provide useful projections of future climate has improved due to their demonstrated performance on a range of space and time-scales^[26]. )
4. There is new and stronger evidence that most of the warming observed over the past 50 years is attributable to human activities
5. Human influences will continue to change atmospheric composition throughout the 21st century
6. Global average temperature and sea level are projected to rise under all IPCC SRES scenarios

The TAR estimate for the climate sensitivity is 1. The Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES was a report prepared by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC for the Third Assessment Report In Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC reports equilibrium climate sensitivity refers to the equilibrium change in global mean surface temperature following 5 to 4. 5 °C; and the average surface temperature is projected to increase by 1. 4 to 5. 8 Celsius degrees over the period 1990 to 2100, and the sea level is projected to rise by 0. 1 to 0. 9 meters over the same period. The wide range in predictions is based on scenarios that assume different levels of future CO₂ emissions. The Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES was a report prepared by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC for the Third Assessment Report Each scenario then has a range of possible outcomes associated with it. The most optimistic outcome assumes an aggressive campaign to reduce CO₂ emissions; the most pessimistic is a "business as usual" scenario. Other scenarios fall in between.

IPCC uses the best available predictions and their reports are under strong scientific scrutiny. The IPCC concedes that there is a need for better models and better scientific understanding of some climate phenomena, as well as the uncertainties involved. Critics assert that the data is insufficient to determine the real importance of greenhouse gases in climate change. Greenhouse gases are gaseous constituents of the atmosphere bothnatural and anthropogenic that absorb and emit radiation at specific wavelengths within the spectrum of thermal infrared Sensitivity of climate to greenhouse gases may be overestimated or underestimated because of flaws in the models and because the importance of some external factors may be misestimated. The predictions are based on scenarios, and the IPCC did not assign any probability to the 35 scenarios used.

Economic growth estimates debate

Castles and Henderson asserted that the IPCC's use of market exchange rates in the Special Report on Emissions Scenarios to convert GDP measures into a common currency is inappropriate, and that, for most countries a Purchasing Power Parity conversion would yield higher estimates of income. The Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES was a report prepared by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC for the Third Assessment Report The purchasing power parity ( PPP) theory uses the long-term equilibrium Exchange rate of two currencies to equalize their Purchasing power. It follows that the rate of growth implied by an assumption of income convergence is higher if exchange rate conversions are used. They imply that this is likely to produce biased projections of emissions. ^[27] Nebojsa Nakicenovic et al. claim that this is incorrect because, provided an internally consistent procedure is used, projections of emissions are unaffected by the choice of index number used to measure GDP. ^[28] See the discussion under Special Report on Emissions Scenarios. The Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES was a report prepared by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC for the Third Assessment Report

Physical modeling debate

See also: global climate model

MIT professor Richard Lindzen, one of the scientists in IPCC Working Group I, has expressed disagreement with the IPCC reports. This article is about computer-driven prediction of Earth's climate for the theories and mathematics of climate modeling please see Climate model. Richard Siegmund Lindzen, PhD (born February 8, 1940) is a Harvard trained atmospheric physicist and the Alfred P He expressed his unhappiness about those portions in the Executive Summary based on his contributions in May 2001 before the U.S. Senate Committee on Commerce, Science and Transportation:

The summary does not reflect the full document. The Senate Committee on Commerce Science and Transportation is a Standing committee of the United States Senate in charge of all senate matters related to the following . . For example, I worked on Chapter 7, Physical Processes. This chapter dealt with the nature of the basic processes which determine the response of climate, and found numerous problems with model treatments – including those of clouds and water vapor. The chapter was summarized with the following sentence: 'Understanding of climate processes and their incorporation in climate models have improved, including water vapor, sea-ice dynamics, and ocean heat transport. '^[29]

The Summary for Policymakers of the WG1 reports does include caveats on model treatments: Such models cannot yet simulate all aspects of climate (e. g. , they still cannot account fully for the observed trend in the surface-troposphere temperature difference since 1979) and there are particular uncertainties associated with clouds and their interaction with radiation and aerosols. Nevertheless, confidence in the ability of these models to provide useful projections of future climate has improved due to their demonstrated performance on a range of space and time-scales. [2].

These statements are in turn supported by the executive summary of chapter 8 of the report, which includes:

• Coupled models can provide credible simulations of both the present annual mean climate and the climatological seasonal cycle over broad continental scales for most variables of interest for climate change. Clouds and humidity remain sources of significant uncertainty but there have been incremental improvements in simulations of these quantities.

• Confidence in the ability of models to project future climates is increased by the ability of several models to reproduce the warming trend in 20th century surface air temperature when driven by radiative forcing due to increasing greenhouse gases and sulphate aerosols. However, only idealised scenarios of only sulphate aerosols have been used.

IPCC Second Assessment Report: Climate Change 1995

Main article: IPCC Second Assessment Report

Climate Change 1995, the IPCC Second Assessment Report (SAR), was finished in 1996. The Second Assessment Report (SAR of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change was published in 1995 It is split into four parts:

• A synthesis to help interpret UNFCCC article 2. Annex I and Annex II Countries and Developing Countries Signatories to the UNFCCC are split into three groups Annex I countries (industrialized countries
• The Science of Climate Change (WG I)
• Impacts, Adaptations and Mitigation of Climate Change (WG II)
• Economic and Social Dimensions of Climate Change (WG III)

Each of the last three parts was completed by a separate working group, and each has a Summary for Policymakers (SPM) that represents a consensus of national representatives. The SPM of the WG I report contains headings:

1. Greenhouse gas concentrations have continued to increase
2. Anthropogenic aerosols tend to produce negative radiative forcings
3. Climate has changed over the past century (air temperature has increased by between 0. 3 and 0. 6 °C since the late 19th century; this estimate has not significantly changed since the 1990 report).
4. The balance of evidence suggests a discernible human influence on global climate (considerable progress since the 1990 report in distinguishing between natural and anthropogenic influences on climate, because of: including aerosols; coupled models; pattern-based studies)
5. Climate is expected to continue to change in the future (increasing realism of simulations increases confidence; important uncertainties remain but are taken into account in the range of model projections)
6. There are still many uncertainties (estimates of future emissions and biogeochemical cycling; models; instrument data for model testing, assessment of variability, and detection studies)

Detection and attribution debate

Three scientists involved in climate research believe that the IPCC reports do not accurately summarize the state of knowledge.

A December 20, 1995, Reuters report quoted British scientist Keith Shine, one of IPCC's lead authors, discussing the Policymakers' Summary. Events 69 - Vespasian, formerly a general under Nero, enters Rome to claim the title of Emperor. Year 1995 ( MCMXCV) was a Common year starting on Sunday. Events of 1995 Keith Shine is the head of the Atmospheric Radiation and Climate group and previous head of department at the University of Reading 's Meteorology department He said: "We produce a draft, and then the policymakers go through it line by line and change the way it is presented. . . . It's peculiar that they have the final say in what goes into a scientists' report". It is not clear, in this case, whether Shine was complaining that the report had been changed to be more skeptical, or less, or something else entirely.

Solid-state physicist Frederick Seitz, president emeritus of Rockefeller University and past president of the National Academy of Sciences, has publicly denounced the IPCC report, writing "I have never witnessed a more disturbing corruption of the peer-review process than the events that led to this IPCC report". Solid-state physics, the largest branch of Condensed matter physics, is the study of rigid Matter, or Solids The bulk of solid-state physics theory and Frederick Seitz ( July 4, 1911 – March 2, 2008) was an American physicist and a pioneer of Solid state physics. He opposed it in the Leipzig Declaration of S. Fred Singer's Science and Environmental Policy Project. The Leipzig Declaration on Global Climate Change is a statement made in 1995 issued in an updated form 1997 and revised in 2005, claimed to have been signed by 80 Scientists and 25 Television Siegfried Frederick Singer (born September 27, 1924 in Vienna) is an American atmospheric physicist. The Science & Environmental Policy Project (SEPP is an Arlington Virginia, United States -based Advocacy group founded in 1990 by atmospheric physicist

In turn, Seitz's comments were vigorously opposed by the presidents of the American Meteorological Society and University Corporation for Atmospheric Research, who wrote about a systematic effort by some individuals to undermine and discredit the scientific process that has led many scientists working on understanding climate to conclude that there is a very real possibility that humans are modifying Earth's climate on a global scale. The American Meteorological Society ( AMS) promotes the development and dissemination of information and education on the atmospheric and related oceanic The University Corporation for Atmospheric Research ( UCAR) is a nonprofit corporation founded in 1960 by research institutions with doctoral programs in the atmospheric Rather than carrying out a legitimate scientific debate. . . they are waging in the public media a vocal campaign against scientific results with which they disagree [3].

S. Fred Singer disseminated a letter about Chapter 8, asserting that [4]:

1. Chapter 8 was altered substantially to make it conform to the Summary;
2. Three key clauses — expressing the consensus of authors, contributors, and reviewers — should have been placed into the Summary instead of being deleted from the approved draft chapter;

Benjamin D. Santer, Convening Lead Author of Chapter 8 of 1995 IPCC Working Group I Report, replied [5]:

1. All revisions were made with the sole purpose of producing the best-possible and most clearly explained assessment of the science, and were under the full scientific control of the Convening Lead Author of Chapter 8. Siegfried Frederick Singer (born September 27, 1924 in Vienna) is an American atmospheric physicist. Dr Benjamin D Santer is a Climate researcher at Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory.
2. None of the changes were politically motivated.

Debate over value of a statistical life

The Second Assessment Report was the first and last to include a chapter on the economic impacts of climate change, of which impacts on human mortality are an important part. As is customary in environmental economics, health impacts of climate change are valued on the basis of willingness to pay for risk reduction. The advantage of this method is that health risks of climate change are treated like any other health risk. The disadvantage of this method is that health risks in different parts of the world are valued differently. Specifically, the value of a statistical life is much higher in rich countries than in poor countries. The chapter authored by David Pearce, Amrita Achanta, Bill Cline, Sam Fankhauser, Rajendra Pachauri, Richard Tol, and Pier Vellinga faithfully reflected the state of the art of the literature, but the chapter was attacked: the IPCC was accused of blasphemy and David Pearce's offices were occupied. This article is about Professor David Pearce, UK economist For other people with this name see David Pearce. Rajendra Kumar Pachauri (born August 20, 1940, Nainital, India) is an Economist and environmental scientist who has Richard SJ Tol (b 1969, Hoorn, the Netherlands) is a Research Professor at the Economic and Social Research Institute, Dublin ProfDrIr Pier Vellinga (April 17 1950 is one of the Netherlands leading experts on Climate change Position in 2007 Velllinga is the chairman of Blasphemy is the disrespectful use of the name of one or more gods. ^{[30][31][32][33][34][35]} This chapter is the only instance in which the authors of the chapter officially denounced the policy makers' summary for inaccuracy. ^[36]

IPCC Supplementary Report: 1992

The 1992 supplementary report was an update, requested in the context of the negotiations on the Framework Convention on Climate Change at the Earth Summit (United Nations Conference on Environment and Development) in Rio de Janeiro in 1992. Annex I and Annex II Countries and Developing Countries Signatories to the UNFCCC are split into three groups Annex I countries (industrialized countries Rio de Janeiro ("River of January" ˈhiw dʒi ʒʌˈnejɾu in Brazilian Portuguese, /ˈriːoʊ di ʒəˈnɛroʊ/ in English is the second largest city of Brazil

The major conclusion was that research since 1990 did "not affect our fundamental understanding of the science of the greenhouse effect and either confirm or do not justify alteration of the major conclusions of the first IPCC scientific assessment". It noted that transient (time-dependent) simulations, which had been very preliminary in the FAR, were now improved, but did not include aerosol or ozone changes.

IPCC First Assessment Report: 1990

Main article: IPCC First Assessment Report

The IPCC first assessment report was completed in 1990, and served as the basis of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC). The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change first assessment report was completed in 1990 and served as the basis of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Annex I and Annex II Countries and Developing Countries Signatories to the UNFCCC are split into three groups Annex I countries (industrialized countries

The executive summary of the WG I Summary for Policymakers report includes:

• We are certain of the following: there is a natural greenhouse effect. . . ; emissions resulting from human activities are substantially increasing the atmospheric concentrations of the greenhouse gases: CO₂, methane, CFCs and nitrous oxide. These increases will enhance the greenhouse effect, resulting on average in an additional warming of the Earth's surface. The main greenhouse gas, water vapour, will increase in response to global warming and further enhance it.

• We calculate with confidence that: . . . CO₂ has been responsible for over half the enhanced greenhouse effect; long-lived gases would require immediate reductions in emissions from human activities of over 60% to stabilise their concentrations at today's levels. . .

• Based on current models, we predict: under [BAU] increase of global mean temperature during the [21st] century of about 0. 3 ^oC per decade (with an uncertainty range of 0. 2 to 0. 5 ^oC per decade); this is greater than that seen over the past 10,000 years; under other . . . scenarios which assume progressively increasing levels of controls, rates of increase in global mean temperature of about 0. 2 ^oC [to] about 0. 1 ^oC per decade.

• There are many uncertainties in our predictions particularly with regard to the timing, magnitude and regional patterns of climate change, due to our incomplete understanding of: sources and sinks of GHGs; clouds; oceans; polar ice sheets.

• Our judgement is that: global mean surface air temperature has increased by 0. 3 to 0. 6 ^oC over the last 100 years. . . ; The size of this warming is broadly consistent with prediction of climate models, but it is also of the same magnitude as natural climate variability. Thus the observed increase could be largely due to this natural variability; alternatively this variability and other human factors could have offset a still larger human-induced greenhouse warming. The unequivocal detection of the enhanced greenhouse effect is not likely for a decade or more.

Operations

The Chair of the IPCC is Rajendra K. Pachauri, elected in May 2002; previously Robert Watson headed the IPCC. Rajendra Kumar Pachauri (born August 20, 1940, Nainital, India) is an Economist and environmental scientist who has Dr Robert T Watson is a British -born US scientist who has worked on atmospheric pollution issues since the 1980s (including Ozone depletion, The chair is assisted by an elected Bureau including vice-chairs, Working Group co-chairs and a Secretariat (see below).

The IPCC Panel is composed of representatives appointed by governments and organizations. Participation of delegates with appropriate expertise is encouraged. Plenary sessions of the IPCC and IPCC Working Groups are held at the level of government representatives. Working Group can mean Working group, an interdisciplinary group of researchers or Working Group (dogs, kennel club designation for Non Governmental and Intergovernmental Organizations may be allowed to attend as observers. Sessions of the IPCC Bureau, workshops, expert and lead authors meetings are by invitation only. ^[37] Attendance at the 2003 meeting included 350 government officials and climate change experts. After the opening ceremonies, closed plenary sessions were held. ^[38] The meeting report ^[39] states there were 322 persons in attendance at Sessions with about seven-eighths of participants being from governmental organizations. ^[40]

The IPCC has published four comprehensive assessment reports reviewing the latest climate science, as well as a number of special reports on particular topics. These reports are prepared by teams of relevant researchers selected by the Bureau from government nominations. Drafts of these reports are made available for comment in open review processes to which anyone may contribute.

The IPCC does not carry out research nor does it monitor climate related data. The responsibility of the lead authors of IPCC reports is to assess available information about climate change drawn mainly from the peer reviewed and published scientific/technical literature. Climate change is any long-term significant change in the “average weather” that a given region experiences ^[41]

There are several major groups:

• IPCC Panel: Meets in plenary session about once a year and controls the organization's structure, procedures, and work programme. The Panel is the IPCC corporate entity.
• Chair: Elected by the Panel.
• Secretariat: Oversees and manages all activities. Supported by UNEP and WMO. The UN Environment Programme (or UNEP) coordinates United Nations environmental activities assisting developing countries in implementing environmentally sound policies
• Bureau: Elected by the Panel. Chaired by the Chair. 30 members include IPCC Vice-Chairs, Co-Chairs and Vice-Chairs of Working Groups and Task Force.
• Working Groups: Each has two Co-Chairs, one from the developed and one from developing world, and a technical support unit.
  • Working Group I: Assesses scientific aspects of the climate system and climate change.
  • Working Group II: Assesses vulnerability of socio-economic and natural systems to climate change, consequences, and adaptation options.
  • Working Group III: Assesses options for limiting greenhouse gas emissions and otherwise mitigating climate change.
• Task Force on National Greenhouse Gas Inventories

The IPCC receives funding from UNEP, WMO, and its own Trust Fund for which it solicits contributions from governments.

Contributors

People from over 130 countries contributed to the IPCC Fourth Assessment Report over the previous 6 years. These people included more than 2500 scientific expert reviewers, more than 800 contributing authors, and more than 450 lead authors^[42].

Of these, the Working Group 1 report (including the summary for policy makers) included contributions by 600 authors from 40 countries, over 620 expert reviewers, a large number of government reviewers, and representatives from 113 governments ^[43].

Activities

The IPCC concentrates its activities on the tasks allotted to it by the relevant WMO Executive Council and UNEP Governing Council resolutions and decisions as well as on actions in support of the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change process. The UN Environment Programme (or UNEP) coordinates United Nations environmental activities assisting developing countries in implementing environmentally sound policies Annex I and Annex II Countries and Developing Countries Signatories to the UNFCCC are split into three groups Annex I countries (industrialized countries ^[2]

In April 2006, the IPCC released the IPCC Fourth Assessment Report or AR4. Climate Change 2007, the Fourth Assessment Report (AR4 of the United Nations Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change ( IPCC) is the fourth ^[44] Reports of the workshops held so far are available at the IPCC website. ^[45]

• Working Group I [6]:
  • Report was due to be finalized during February of 2007 [7] and was finished on schedule.
  • By May 2005, there had been 3 AR4 meetings, with only public information being meeting locations, an author list, one invitation, one agenda, and one list of presentation titles.
  • By December 2006, governments were reviewing the revised summary for policy makers.
• Working Group II [8]:
  • Report was due to be finalized in mid-2007 and was completed on schedule.
  • In May 2005, there had been 2 AR4 meetings, with no public information released.
  • One shared meeting with WG III had taken place, with a published summary.
• Working Group III [9]:
  • Report was due to be finalized in mid-2007.
  • In May 2005, there had been 1 AR4 meeting, with no public information released.

The AR4 Synthesis Report (SYR) was finalized in November 2007. Documentation on the scoping meetings for the AR4 are available [10] as are the outlines for the WG I report [11]PDF (11. 5 KiB) and a provisional author list [12]PDF (108 KiB). A kibibyte (a contraction of ki lo bi nary byte) is a unit of Information or Computer storage, established by the International A kibibyte (a contraction of ki lo bi nary byte) is a unit of Information or Computer storage, established by the International

While the preparation of the assessment reports is a major IPCC function, it also supports other activities, such as the Data Distribution Centre [13] and the National Greenhouse Gas Inventories Programme [14], required under the UNFCCC. Annex I and Annex II Countries and Developing Countries Signatories to the UNFCCC are split into three groups Annex I countries (industrialized countries This involves publishing default emission factors, which are factors used to derive emissions estimates based on the levels of fuel consumption, industrial production and so on. An emission factor can be defined as the average emission rate of a given Pollutant for a given source relative to the intensity of a specific activity

The IPCC also often answers inquiries from the UNFCCC Subsidiary Body for Scientific and Technological Advice (SBSTA).

Publications

Scope and preparation of the reports

The IPCC reports are a compendium of peer reviewed and published science. Peer review (also known as refereeing) is the process of subjecting an author's scholarly work research or Ideas to the scrutiny of others who are Each subsequent IPCC report notes areas where the science has improved since the previous report and also notes areas where further research is required.

There are generally three stages in the review process [15]PDF (55. 7 KiB):

• Expert review (6-8 weeks)
• Government/expert review
• Government review of:
  • Summaries for Policymakers
  • Overview Chapters
  • Synthesis Report

Review comments are in an open archive for at least five years. A kibibyte (a contraction of ki lo bi nary byte) is a unit of Information or Computer storage, established by the International

There are several types of endorsement which documents receive [16]PDF (55. 7 KiB):

• approval: Material has been subjected to detailed, line by line discussion and agreement. A kibibyte (a contraction of ki lo bi nary byte) is a unit of Information or Computer storage, established by the International
  • Working Group Summaries for Policymakers are approved by their Working Groups.
  • Synthesis Report Summary for Policymakers is approved by Panel.
• adoption: Endorsed section by section (and not line by line).
  • Panel adopts Overview Chapters of Methodology Reports.
  • Panel adopts IPCC Synthesis Report.
• acceptance: Not been subject to line by line discussion and agreement, but presents a comprehensive, objective, and balanced view of the subject matter.
  • Working Groups accept their reports.
  • Task Force Reports are accepted by the Panel.
  • Working Group Summaries for Policymakers are accepted by the Panel after group approval.

The Panel is responsible for the IPCC and its endorsement of Reports allows it to ensure they meet IPCC standards. The Panel's approval process has been criticized for changing the product of the experts who create the Reports. On the other hand, not requiring Panel re-endorsement of Reports has also been criticized, after changes required by the approval process were made to Reports.

Authors

Each chapter has a number of authors who are responsible for writing and editing the material. A chapter typically has two Coordinating Lead Authors, ten to fifteen Lead Authors, and a somewhat larger number of Contributing Authors. The Coordinating Lead Authors are responsible for assembling the contributions of the other authors, ensuring that they meet stylistic and formatting requirements, and reporting to the Working Group chairs. Lead Authors are responsible for writing sections of chapters. Contributing Authors prepare text, graphs or data for inclusion by the Lead Authors.

Authors for the IPCC reports are chosen from a list of researchers prepared by governments, and participating organisations and the Working Group/Task Force Bureaux, and other experts as appropriate, known through their publications and works ([17]PDF (55. 7 KiB), 4. A kibibyte (a contraction of ki lo bi nary byte) is a unit of Information or Computer storage, established by the International 2. 1,2). The composition of the group of Coordinating Lead Authors and Lead Authors for a section or chapter of a Report is intended to reflect the need to aim for a range of views, expertise and geographical representation (ensuring appropriate representation of experts from developing and developed countries and countries with economies in transition).

Nobel Peace Prize 2007

In December 2007, the IPCC was awarded the Nobel Peace Prize 2007 "for their efforts to build up and disseminate greater knowledge about man-made climate change, and to lay the foundations for the measures that are needed to counteract such change. The Nobel Peace Prize ( Swedish, Danish and Nobels fredspris is one of five Nobel Prizes Bequeathed by the Swedish industrialist and inventor " The award is shared with Former U. S. Vice-President Al Gore for his work on climate change and the documentary An Inconvenient Truth. Albert Arnold Gore Jr (born March 31 1948 is an American environmental Activist, author Businessperson, former Politician, and former An Inconvenient Truth is an American Documentary film about Global warming, presented by former United States Vice President ^[46]

Criticism of IPCC

Christopher Landsea resignation

Main article: IPCC Fourth Assessment Report

In January 2005 Christopher Landsea resigned from work on the IPCC AR4, saying that he viewed the process "as both being motivated by pre-conceived agendas and being scientifically unsound" because of Kevin Trenberth's public contention that global warming was contributing to recent hurricane activity ^[47]. Climate Change 2007, the Fourth Assessment Report (AR4 of the United Nations Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change ( IPCC) is the fourth Christopher Landsea, formerly a research Meteorologist with Hurricane Research Division of Atlantic Oceanographic & Meteorological Laboratory at NOAA, is now the Science Climate Change 2007, the Fourth Assessment Report (AR4 of the United Nations Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change ( IPCC) is the fourth Dr Kevin E Trenberth is head of the Climate Analysis Section at the National Center for Atmospheric Research. Roger A. Pielke who published Landsea's letter writes: "How anyone can deny that political factors were everpresent in the negotiations isn't paying attention", but notes that the actual report "Despite the pressures, on tropical cyclones they figured out a way to maintain consistency with the actual balance of opinion(s) in the community of relevant experts. Roger A Pielke (Sr is a Climatologist with interests in climate variability and Climate change, environmental vulnerability numerical modeling, " He continues "So there might be a human contribution (and presumably this is just to the observed upwards trends observed in some basins, and not to downward trends observed in others, but this is unclear) but the human contribution itself has not been quantitatively assessed, yet the experts, using their judgment, expect it to be there. In plain English this is what is called a 'hypothesis' and not a 'conclusion. ' And it is a fair representation of the issue. "^[48]

Emphasis of the "hockey stick" graph

Main article: Hockey stick controversy

The third assessment report (TAR) prominently featured^[49] a graph labeled "Millennial Northern Hemisphere temperature reconstruction" from a paper by Mann, Bradley and Hughes (MBH98^[50]) often referred to as the "Hockey Stick Graph". The hockey stick controversy is a dispute over the reconstructed estimates of Northern Hemisphere mean temperature changes over the past millennium,especially the particular The IPCC Third Assessment Report, Climate Change 2001, is an assessment of available scientific and socio-economic information on climate change by an intergovermental panel This graph differed from a schematic in the first assessment report which depicted larger global temperature variations over the past 1000 years, and higher temperatures during the Medieval Warm Period than the present day. The description of the Medieval Warm Period and Little Ice Age in IPCC reports has changed since the first report in 1990 as scientific understanding of the Temperature record The Medieval Warm Period (MWP or Medieval Climate Optimum was a time of unusually Warm Climate in the North Atlantic region lasting from about (The schematic was not an actual plot of data. ) The appearance of MBH98 in the TAR was widely construed as demonstrating that the current warming period is exceptional in comparison to temperatures between 1000 and 1900. The methodology used to produce this graph was criticized in an article by Stephen McIntyre and Ross McKitrick. Stephen McIntyre is the primary author of Climate Audit, a Blog devoted to the analysis and discussion of climate data Ross McKitrick is a Canadian Economist specializing in Environmental economics and Policy analysis. ^[51] In a 2006 letter to Nature, Bradley, Hughes and Mann pointed out that their original article had said that "more widespread high-resolution data are needed before more confident conclusions can be reached" and that the uncertainties were "the point of the article. Nature is a prominent Scientific journal, first published on 4 November 1869 "^[52]

Conservative nature of IPCC reports

Some critics have contended that the IPCC reports tend to underestimate dangers, understate risks, and report only the "lowest common denominator" findings. ^[53]

On February 1, 2007, the eve of the publication of IPCC's major report on climate, a study was published suggesting that temperatures and sea levels have been rising at or above the maximum rates proposed during the last IPCC report in 2001. Events 1327 - Teenaged Edward III is crowned King of England, but the country is ruled by his mother Queen Year 2007 ( MMVII) was a Common year starting on Monday of the Gregorian calendar in the 21st century. ^[54] The study compared IPCC 2001 projections on temperature and sea level change with observations. Over the six years studied, the actual temperature rise was near the top end of the range given by IPCC's 2001 projection and the actual rise was above the top of the range of the IPCC projection.

An example of scientific research which has indicated that previous estimates by the IPCC, far from overstating dangers and risks, has actually understated them (this may be due, in part, to the expanding human understanding of climate, as well as to the conservative bias, noted above, which is built into the IPCC system,) is a study on projected rises in sea levels. When the researchers' analysis was "applied to the possible scenarios outlined by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), the researchers found that in 2100 sea levels would be 0. 5–1. 4 m above 1990 levels. These values are much greater than the 9–88 cm as projected by the IPCC itself in its Third Assessment Report, published in 2001. ^[55][56]

In reporting criticism by some scientists that IPCC's then-impending January 2007 report understates certain risks, particularly sea level rises, an AP story quoted Stefan Ramstorf, professor of physics and oceanography at Potsdam University as saying:

In a way, it is one of the strengths of the IPCC to be very conservative and cautious and not overstate any climate change risk

– Stefan Rahmstorf^[57]

In his December 2006 book, Hell and High Water: Global Warming, and in an interview on Fox News on January 31, 2007, energy expert Joseph Romm noted that the IPCC Fourth Assessment Report is already out of date and omits recent observations and factors contributing to global warming, such as the release of greenhouse gases from thawing tundra. Stefan Rahmstorf (born February 22, 1960) is a German Oceanographer and Climatologist. Hell and High Water Global Warming — the Solution and the Politics — and What We Should Do is a book by author scientist and former U Events 1504 - France cedes Naples to Aragon. 1606 - Gunpowder Plot: Guy Fawkes Year 2007 ( MMVII) was a Common year starting on Monday of the Gregorian calendar in the 21st century. Joseph J Romm (born June 27 1960) is an American author lecturer and scientist who concentrates on solutions related to reducing Greenhouse gas emissions Climate Change 2007, the Fourth Assessment Report (AR4 of the United Nations Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change ( IPCC) is the fourth ^[58]

Political influence on the IPCC has been documented by the release of a memo by ExxonMobil to the Bush administration, and its effects on the IPCC's leadership. The memo led to strong Bush administration lobbying, evidently at the behest of ExxonMobil, to oust Robert Watson, a climate scientist, from the IPCC chairmanship, and to have him replaced by Pachauri, who was seen at the time as more mild-mannered and industry-friendly. Dr Robert T Watson is a British -born US scientist who has worked on atmospheric pollution issues since the 1980s (including Ozone depletion, ^[59][60]

IPCC processes

In 2005, the UK House of Lords Select Committee on Economic Affairs produced a report on the economics of climate change. The House of Lords is the second house of the Parliament of the United Kingdom and is also commonly referred to as "the Lords" See also Committee A Select Committee is a committee made up of a small number of parliamentary members appointed to deal with particular areas or issues It commented on the IPCC process:

We have some concerns about the objectivity of the IPCC process, with some of its emissions scenarios and summary documentation apparently influenced by political considerations. There are significant doubts about some aspects of the IPCC’s emissions scenario exercise, in particular, the high emissions scenarios. The Government should press the IPCC to change their approach. There are some positive aspects to global warming and these appear to have been played down in the IPCC reports; the Government should press the IPCC to reflect in a more balanced way the costs and benefits of climate change. The Government should press the IPCC for better estimates of the monetary costs of global warming damage and for explicit monetary comparisons between the costs of measures to control warming and their benefits. Since warming will continue, regardless of action now, due to the lengthy time lags.

– The Economics of Climate ChangePDF

Interestingly, the Stern Review ordered by the UK government, whose findings were released in October 2006, made a stronger argument in favor of urgent action to combat human-made climate change than previous analyses, including some by IPCC. The Stern Review on the Economics of Climate Change is a 700-page report released on October 30, 2006 by economist Lord Stern of Brentford for the The conclusions of the Stern Review have been contested, however. ^[61]

The structural elements of the IPCC processes have been criticized in other ways, with the design of the processes during the formation of the IPCC making its reports prone not to exaggerations, but to underestimating dangers, under-stating risks, and reporting only the "least common denominator" findings which by design make it through the bureaucracy. As noted by Spencer Weart, Director of the Center for History of Physics at the American Institute of Physics,

The Reagan administration wanted to forestall pronouncements by self-appointed committees of scientists, fearing they would be 'alarmist. ' Conservatives promoted the IPCC's clumsy structure, which consisted of representatives appointed by every government in the world and required to consult all the thousands of experts in repeated rounds of report-drafting in order to reach a consensus. Despite these impediments the IPCC has issued unequivocal statements on the urgent need to act.

– [18]

Outdatedness of reports

Since the IPCC does not carry out its own research, it operates on the basis of scientific papers and independently documented results from other scientific bodies, and its schedule for producing reports requires a deadline for submissions prior to the report’s final release. In principle, this means that any significant new evidence or events that change our understanding of climate science between this deadline and publication of an IPCC report cannot be included. In an area of science where our scientific understanding is rapidly changing, this has been raised as a serious shortcoming in a body which is widely regarded as the ultimate authority on the science. ^[62] However, there has generally been a steady evolution of key findings and levels of scientific confidence from one assessment report to the next.

The submission deadlines for the Fourth Assessment Report (AR4) differed for the reports of each Working Group. Deadlines for the Working Group I report were adjusted during the drafting and review process in order to ensure that reviewers had access to unpublished material being cited by the authors. The final deadline for cited publications was July 24, 2006. ^[63] The final WG I report was released on April 30, 2007 and the final AR4 Synthesis Report was released on November 17, 2007.

Rajendra Pachauri, the IPCC chair, admitted at the launch of this report that since the IPCC began work on it, scientists have recorded "much stronger trends in climate change", like the unforeseen dramatic melting of polar ice in the summer of 2007^[64], and added, "that means you better start with intervention much earlier". ^[65]

Burden on participating scientists

Scientists who participate in the IPCC assessment process do so without any compensation other than the normal salaries they receive from their home institutions. The process is labor intensive, diverting time and resources from participating scientists' research programs. ^[66] Concerns have been raised that the large uncompensated time commitment and disruption to their own research may discourage qualified scientists from participating. ^[67]

See also

• Avoiding Dangerous Climate Change – international conference (2005)
• Global warming
• List of scientists opposing the mainstream scientific assessment of global warming
• G8+5
• Summary for policymakers
• Post-Kyoto Protocol negotiations on greenhouse gas emissions
• Bert Bolin
• Renewable Energy Sources and Climate Change Mitigation

Notes and references

External links

• The IPCC web site
  • IPCC Organisation
  • IPCC PrinciplesPDF (8. 38 KiB)
  • IPCC publications
  • IPCC AR4 WG1 Report Available for Purchase
    • Summaries for Policymakers (SPMs) of the IPCC Fourth Assessment Report:
      • Working Group I (The Physical Science Basis) PDF (3. A kibibyte (a contraction of ki lo bi nary byte) is a unit of Information or Computer storage, established by the International Climate Change 2007, the Fourth Assessment Report (AR4 of the United Nations Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change ( IPCC) is the fourth 67 MiB),
      • Working Group II (Impacts, Adaptation and VulnerabilityPDF (923 KiB)
      • Working Group III (Mitigation of Climate Change)PDF (631 KiB)
• A summary of the Fourth Assessment Report SPMs by GreenFacts. A mebibyte (a contraction of me ga bi nary byte) is a unit of Information or Computer storage, abbreviated MiB. A kibibyte (a contraction of ki lo bi nary byte) is a unit of Information or Computer storage, established by the International A kibibyte (a contraction of ki lo bi nary byte) is a unit of Information or Computer storage, established by the International GreenFacts, formerly the GreenFacts Foundation, is an international Non-profit organization founded in 2001 in Brussels, Belgium.
• IPCC article at the Encyclopedia of Earth - General overview of the IPCC
• Climate Change - What Is the IPCC by Jean-Marc Jancovici
• Climate Change Freeview Video Interview 2006 - Sherwood Rowland, Nobel Laureate (1995) for work on ozone depletion discusses climate change. Provided by the Vega Science Trust.