Citizendia
Your Ad Here

This article refers to deterrent theories of punishment. For the legal theory of justice, see Deterrence (legal). This article refers to deterrent theories of punishment For other uses see Deterrence (disambiguation.

Deterrence theory is a military strategy developed during Cold War. Cold War is the state of conflict tension and competition that existed between the United States and the Soviet Union (USSR and their respective allies from the It is especially relevant with regard to the use of nuclear weapons, and figures prominently on current United States foreign policy regarding the development of nuclear technology in North Korea and Iran. A nuclear weapon is an explosive device that derives its destructive force from Nuclear reactions either fission or a combination of fission and fusion. North Korea is the commonly used short form name for the Democratic People's Republic of Korea (or DPRK) a State located in East Asia, For a topic outline on this subject see List of basic Iran topics.

The term is also used more generally to refer to a strategy in any field of potential conflict of being prepared to inflict unacceptable damage on an aggressor, and making sure the potential aggressor is aware of the risk so that he refrains from aggression.

Contents

Strategy

Deterrence is a strategy by which governments threaten an immense retaliation if attacked, such that aggressors are deterred if they do not wish to suffer great damage as a result of an aggressive action. Weapons of mass destruction (WMDs), conventional weapons strength, economic sanctions, or any combination of these can be used as deterrents. A weapon of mass destruction ( WMD) is a weapon which can kill large numbers of humans and/or cause great damage to man-made structures (e A conventional weapon is a Weapon that does not incorporate toxic chemical, biological or nuclear payloads Mutually Assured Destruction (MAD) is a form of this strategy, which came to prominence during the Cold War when it was used by the US to characterize relations between the United States and Soviet Union, although the Soviet Union did not in fact adhere to MAD and was prepared to fight a full scale nuclear and conventional war. Mutual assured destruction ( MAD; sometimes written as mutually assured destruction) is a Doctrine of military Strategy in which a full-scale [1]

Deterrence by denial is a strategy whereby a government builds up or maintains defense and intelligence systems with the purported aim of neutralizing or mitigating attacks. Aggressors are deterred if they choose not to act, perceiving the cost of their action to be too high in relation to its likely success.

Deterrence is viewed by some as the opposite of appeasement, where an expansionist government is allowed to absorb some territory to reach a negotiated settlement, (for example, the Munich Agreement prior to World War II). The Munich Agreement (Mnichovská dohoda Mníchovská dohoda Münchner Abkommen Accords de Munich was an agreement regarding the Sudetenland, which were areas along borders

History

United States policy of deterrence during the Cold War underwent significant variations. Cold War is the state of conflict tension and competition that existed between the United States and the Soviet Union (USSR and their respective allies from the The early stages of the Cold War were generally characterized by ideology of Containment, an aggressive stance on behalf of the United States especially regarding developing nations under their sphere of influence. Containment refers to a Foreign policy of the United States in the early years of the Cold War. Developing countries are countries that haven't reached Western-style standards of democratic government free market economy industrialization social programs and human rights guaranties A sphere of influence ( SOI) is an area or region over which an organization or state exerts some kind of indirect cultural economic military or political domination This period was characterized by numerous proxy wars throughout most of the globe, particularly Africa, Asia, Central America, and South America. A proxy war is the war that results when two powers use third parties as substitutes for fighting each other directly A notable such conflict was the Korean War. The Korean War refers to a period of military conflict between North Korean and South Korean regimes with major hostilities lasting from June 25 1950 until the In contrast to general opinion, George F. Kennan, who is taken to be the founder of this ideology in the famous Long Telegram, asserted that his ideas had been misinterpreted and that he never advocated military intervention, merely economic support. George Frost Kennan (February 16 1904 &ndash March 17 2005 was an American Advisor, Diplomat, Political scientist, and Historian, best The X Article, formally titled The Sources of Soviet Conduct, was published in Foreign Affairs magazine in July 1947

With the US pullout in Vietnam, the normalization of US relations with China, and the Sino-Soviet Split, the policy of Containment was abandoned and a new policy of détente was established, whereby peaceful coexistence was sought between the United States and the Soviet Union. The Sino-Soviet split was a gradual divergence of diplomatic ties between the People's Republic of China (PRC and the Union of Soviet Socialist Republics (USSR Détente is a French term meaning a relaxing or easing the term has been used in international politics since the early 1970s Although all factors listed above contributed to this shift, the most important factor was probably the rough parity achieved in stockpiling nuclear weapons with the clear capability of Mutually Assured Destruction (MAD). Mutual assured destruction ( MAD; sometimes written as mutually assured destruction) is a Doctrine of military Strategy in which a full-scale Therefore, the period of détente was characterized by a general reduction in the tension between the Soviet Union and the United States and a thawing of the Cold War, lasting from the late 1960s until the start of the 1980s. The doctrine of Mutual Nuclear Deterrence characterized relations between the United States and the Soviet Union during this period, and present relations with Russia. This article refers to deterrent theories of punishment For the legal theory of justice see Deterrence (legal.

A third shift occurred with President Ronald Reagan's arms build-up during the 1980s. Reagan attempted to justify this policy in part due to concerns of growing Soviet influence in Latin America and the new republic of Iran, established after the Iranian Revolution of 1979. For a topic outline on this subject see List of basic Iran topics. The Iranian Revolution' (mostly known as the Islamic Revolution, Persian: انقلاب اسلامی Enghelābe Eslāmi was the Revolution that transformed Similar to the old policy of Containment, the United States funded several proxy wars, including support for Saddam Hussein of Iraq during the Iran-Iraq War, support for the mujahideen in Afghanistan, who were fighting for independence from the Soviet Union, and several anti-communist movements in Latin America such as the overthrow Sandinista government in Nicaragua. A proxy war is the war that results when two powers use third parties as substitutes for fighting each other directly Saddam Hussein Abd al-Majid al-Tikriti ( Arabic: ar صدام حسين عبد المجيد التكريتي --> April 28 1937 &ndash December 30 For a topic outline on this subject see List of basic Iraq topics. A Mujahid (Arabic ar مجاهد, literally "struggler" is a Muslim involved in a Jihad, id est fighting in a war or Afghanistan /æfˈgænɪstæn/ officially the Islamic Republic of Afghanistan ( Pashto: د افغانستان اسلامي جمهوریت, The Sandinista National Liberation Front ( Frente Sandinista de Liberación Nacional) is a socialist Nicaraguan Political party. Nicaragua (ˌnɪkəˈrɑgwə officially the Republic of Nicaragua () is a representative democratic republic and the largest nation in Central America The funding of the Contras in Nicaragua led to the Iran-Contra Affair, while overt support led to a ruling from the International Court of Justice against the United States in Nicaragua v. United States. The Contras is a label given to the various rebel groups opposing Nicaragua 's FSLN (Frente Sandinista de Liberacion Nacional Sandinista Junta of National The Iran-Contra affair was a political scandal which was revealed in November 1986 as a result of earlier events during the Reagan administration. See also International Commission of Jurists The International Court of Justice (known colloquially as the World Court or ICJ; Cour The Republic of Nicaragua v The United States of America was a case heard in 1986 by the International Court of Justice which ruled in favor of Nicaragua The United States refused to obey this warning and pay the fine.

While the army was dealing with the break up of the Soviet Union and the spread of nuclear technology to other nations beyond the United States and Russia, the concept of deterrence took on a broader multinational dimension. The US policy on post-Cold War deterrence was outlined in 1995 in a document called "Essentials of Post-Cold War Deterrence". " Essentials of Post-Cold War Deterrence " is a document produced in 1995 as a "Terms of Reference" by the Policy Subcommittee of the Strategic Advisory Group (SAG of [2] This document explains that while relations with Russia continue to follow the traditional characteristics of Mutual Nuclear Deterrence, due to both nations continuing Mutually Assured Destruction, US policy of deterrence towards nations with minor nuclear capabilities should ensure through threats of immense retaliation (or even preemptive action) that they do not threaten the United States, its interests, or allies. This article refers to deterrent theories of punishment For the legal theory of justice see Deterrence (legal. Mutual assured destruction ( MAD; sometimes written as mutually assured destruction) is a Doctrine of military Strategy in which a full-scale Preemptive war (or a preemptive strike) is waged in an attempt to repel or defeat a perceived inevitable offensive or Invasion, or to gain a strategic advantage in The document explains that such threats must also be used to ensure that nations without nuclear technology refrain from developing nuclear weapons and that a universal ban precludes any nation from maintaining chemical or biological weapons. The current tensions with Iran and North Korea over their nuclear programs are due in part to the continuation of this policy of deterrence.

Criticism

Deterrence theory is criticized for its assumptions about opponent rationales: first, it is argued that suicidal or psychopathic opponents may not be deterred by either forms of deterrence. Second, diplomatic misunderstandings and/or opposing political ideologies may lead to escalating mutual perceptions of threat, and a subsequent arms race which elevates the risk of actual war (this scenario is illustrated in the movies WarGames and Dr. Strangelove). The term arms race, in its original usage describes a competition between two or more parties for real or apparent military supremacy WarGames is a 1983 drama / Thriller film written by Lawrence Lasker and Walter F An arms race is inefficient in its optimal output; all countries involved expend resources on armaments which would not have been expended if the others had not expended resources. The term arms race, in its original usage describes a competition between two or more parties for real or apparent military supremacy This is a form of positive feedback. Positive feedback, sometimes referred to as "cumulative causation" is a Feedback loop system in which the system responds to perturbation in the same direction

Finally, a military build-up increases a country's risks of budget deficits, restrictions on civil liberties, the creation of a military-industrial complex, and other such potentially-undesirable measures. A budget deficit occurs when an Entity (often a Government) spends more Money than it takes in thumb| |Broken Liberty Istanbul Archaeology Museum Civil liberties are freedoms that protect the Individual from the Government. A military-industrial complex (MIC is a concept commonly used to refer to Policy relationships between Governments national Armed forces, and industrial See Garrison State. The Garrison State was a 1941 article in the American Journal of Sociology by political scientist and sociologist Harold Lasswell.

Psychology and deterrence

A new form of criticism emerged in the late 1980s with detailed analyses of the actions of individual leaders and groups of leaders in crisis situations (historical and theoretical).

A number of new or nuanced criticisms of "traditional" deterrence theory emerged. One was that deterrence theory assumed that both sides had common rational peaceful goals. In some real-life situations, such as the Yom Kippur War, leaders felt that internal or external political considerations forced a conflict. The Yom Kippur War, Ramadan War or October War (מלחמת יום הכיפורים transliterated: Milkhemet Yom HaKipurim or מלחמת יום One of the essays in,[3] regarding the internal military and political discussions within the Egyptian high command in 1973, indicates that senior civilian leaders (including Anwar Sadat) believed that they had to fight a war in order to have enough internal political support to negotiate for peace.

In another miscalculation, Israel rationalized that the Israeli military dominance would deter any attack, and believed that no rational Syrian or Egyptian leader would attempt such an attack. Sadat felt unable to avoid a war, and Syria's leadership misjudged the military situation and believed they could be victorious. Israel assumed rational and well-informed opponents with clear objectives, and its deterrence failed.

Another observation is that crisis situations can reach a point that formerly stabilizing actions (such as keeping military units at bases, and low alert levels) can be seen as a sign of weakness, and that perceived weakness can then induce an opponent to attack during the perceived time of advantage. Thus, an inversion point exists, after which some formerly stabilizing actions become destabilizing, and some formerly destabilizing actions become stabilizing.

Finally, studies of the specific group psychology of several leaders and leader groups, including the Israeli and Arab leaders in 1973 and the Kennedy Administration during the Bay of Pigs and Cuban Missile Crisis, indicated that in many cases executive groups use poor decision-making techniques and improperly assess available information. For the United States invasion at the Bay of Pigs see Bay of Pigs Invasion. The Cuban Missile Crisis was a confrontation between the United States, the Soviet Union, and Cuba during the Cold War. Groupthink is a type of thought exhibited by group members who try to minimize conflict and reach consensus without critically testing analyzing and evaluating ideas These errors can and often do preclude truly rational end-behavior in deterrence situations.

See also

References

  1. ^ Yost, D. " Essentials of Post-Cold War Deterrence " is a document produced in 1995 as a "Terms of Reference" by the Policy Subcommittee of the Strategic Advisory Group (SAG of Cold War is the state of conflict tension and competition that existed between the United States and the Soviet Union (USSR and their respective allies from the In the theory of Nuclear warfare, a decapitation strike is a First strike attack that aims to remove the command and control mechanisms of the opponent A nuclear deterrent is the phrase used to refer to a country's nuclear weapons arsenal when considered in the context of Deterrence theory. Nuclear strategy involves the development of doctrines and strategies for the production and use of Nuclear weapons As a sub-branch of Military Massive retaliation, also known as a massive response or massive deterrence, is a Military doctrine and Nuclear strategy in which a state commits Mutual assured destruction ( MAD; sometimes written as mutually assured destruction) is a Doctrine of military Strategy in which a full-scale Nuclear Blackmail is a form of Nuclear strategy in which an aggressor uses the threat of use of Nuclear weapons to force an adversary to perform Launch on warning is a nuclear strategy which came about during the Cold War between the United States and the Soviet Union. Nuclear peace is a theory of International Relations (IR which argues that under some circumstances Nuclear weapons can induce stability and decrease the chances of The Prisoner's Dilemma constitutes a problem in Game theory. It was originally framed by Merrill Flood and Melvin Dresher Chainstore paradox (or "Chain-Store paradox" is a concept that purports to refute standard Game theory reasoning 2007. "Analysing International Nuclear Order. " International Affairs 83:3, 549=574
  2. ^ The Nautilus Institute Nuclear Strategy Project: US FOIA Documents
  3. ^ Psychology and Deterrence, Ed. Robert Jervis, ISBN 0-8018-3842-8, The Johns Hopkins University Press; Reprint edition (April 1, 1989)

Further reading

External links

© 2009 citizendia.org; parts available under the terms of GNU Free Documentation License, from http://en.wikipedia.org
 Dapyx Software network: MP3 Explorer | Ebook Manager | Zenithic